Understanding the Economic Meltdown
Nicolas Sanchez, Professor of Economics at Holy Cross, spoke to a standing room only crowd of more than 100 people on June 30, 2009, at the Worcester Public Library. His talk, “Why President Obama’s Economic Policy Will Not Solve Our Economic Problems,” provided startling information about the economic crisis — how we got here, what’s being done that won’t work, and what should be done to turn things around.
Below is an excerpt from the talk with horrifying numbers about what the current administration has done to the money supply and what that means over the long run.
How, then, is the current Administration dealing with the crisis?
I will begin this third part of my presentation with something that I discussed at the Tea Party in Worcester on June 20th. This is the statistic that you should memorize; and that you can easily obtain if you forget it, for it is available at the web site of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, one of the branches of our central bank. Five years after the Fed’s creation, in 1918, the monetary base—which is what allows the money supply to expand in multiple proportions—grew from $4.8 billion to $870 billion, as of August of last year. This growth of the monetary base occurred at a steady pace for over 90 years. Yet, between August of last year and May of this year the monetary base has risen by almost $1,000 billion—in other words, it has more than doubled in the past eight months! This is the type of behavior that you find in Argentina or the approach that communist regimes have used to attach the problem of unemployment: print enough money so that firms can hire the people who want to be employed.
Let me make clear that I do not believe that this Administration is simply imitating communist regimes—for some other, non-communist countries have also followed this type of reckless monetary behavior in the past. I gave the example of Argentina, which has never been a communist country, but I do believe that a more appropriate example is the Weimar Republic—in other words, Germany in the 1920s. Germany was an advanced country that was in deep trouble because of its military commitments and the debt that it had acquired as a result of the First World War. Unions were also quite powerful and big business tolerated the power of those unions. Big government, big labor and big business finally decided that the country could only get out of debt by inflating the currency—big time.
The one surprise that you will hear in this lecture is that the policy was in fact successful, at least initially and with regard to unemployment and the financial markets. (The stock market boomed.) The big German inflation began slowly but peaked in 1923; then the German government finally stabilized the mark (which was the German currency) by forcing an exchange of 1 trillion old marks for 1 single new mark. (The stock market collapsed.) The consequence of this approach was that the structural problems of the nation were not addressed and that there was massive redistribution of income within the country that ultimately led to massive social unrest, and ultimately to the rise of Adolf Hitler. People on fixed incomes, like the elderly, were financially devastated by the inflation. This, I believe, is a possible scenario for our own economy.

